A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
