Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
